BRAZIL

The main power in the South Atlantic is Brazil and all eyes will be focused on the country’s elections in October 2010. The most obvious contest will be between Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra and President Lula’s chief of staff, mrs Dilma Rousseff.

Expect a tough battle. The Lula government will go at length to court the masses with continuing social benefits and tax breaks for consumers. Lula will be widely credited for the good years Brazil is experiencing right now, but will this apply for his handpicked successor? Competition from a couple of candidates on the left may cost mrs Rousseff the election already in the first round.

Brazil should see a healthy economic growth rate of between 4-6 % in 2010. More Brazilian companies will venture abroad and acquire companies in Latin America, Africa as well as the US and Europe. A small number Brazilian entreprises will become true multinationals soon.

The last year of the Lula government will see some more attempts by the state to pressure large private companies into investing more in the country and less abroad. A clear example was Lula’s personal intervention with Vale, Brazil’s largest mining form and a former state owned entreprise.

The city to watch is of course Rio de Janeiro, as it prepares for the 2014 soccer World Championship as well as the 2016 Olympics. Expect tough measures to improve security, including heavy battles to subdue some notorious crime-infested favela’s near the city’s main beaches.

Politics are finally well placed to deal with these issues as both Rio’s Mayor and State Governor belong to the same party. This duo will get things done.

CAPE VERDE

The tiny island state should have a 3-4% GDP growth in 2010.

It is experiencing an interesting form of political cooperation:  most towns, including the two main cities of Cape Verde, are ruled by the opposition MpD. Expect that cooperation to end in disarray by the end of 2010 as the country prepares for the national elections of early 2011.

Investment in tourism and real estate seems to pick up again in 2010.

ANGOLA

Oil-rich Angola should experience  GDP growth of 5-6 % in 2010.

The country will experience its first international sports event since the end of its civil war with the hosting of a regional soccer tournament.

Expect Angola to increase its own investment abroad by national oil company Sonangol and its banking subsidiary, BAI.

Angola is aiming to improve its agriculture production and the first signs may be visible already in 2010.

SOUTH AFRICA

The country will be in the spotlights during the soccer World Cup, which will take place in the country’s winter. There will be concerns for security of the thousands of soccer fans that will descend on the country. Nasty incidents could damage the country’s image badly.

GDP growth is expected to be between 2-3%. Soccer-related tourism will boost the economy for years to come.

Expect more clashes between opposition leader Helen Zille, the Western Cape provincial prime minister, and the national government.

There will be strong attempts by the government of president Jacob Zuma to improve ties with oil-rich Angola

SURINAM

The country’s political life has come to a standstill, as Surinam braces for the May 2010 national elections. Strong performance is expected of an opposition alliance led by former military strongman Desi Bouterse. Expect a campaign full of Holland-bashing, as all candidates try to distance themselves from the former colonial power and the country’s main benefactor for the last decade.

A Bouterse victory will create interesting situations, as he has been convicted in absence by a Dutch court for drugs smuggling. But this election is Bouterse’s last chance of gaining power again. In case he loses, Surinam will experience a stable future.

In any case Surinam’s economy will do nicely in 2010